A short piece written for Achilles at the commencement of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Energy transition commodities: Tight supply and concentrated
The “Energy Transition” will reduce demand for fossil fuels and cut greenhouse gas emissions. However, the shift relies on a step-up in consumption of some commodities. Commodities, where supply is already tight and highly concentrated, so adding risks to and slowing the transition.
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Shifting demographic forecasts will undermine housing plans
The present government is wrestling with the unrealised desires of house-buyers to secure a home at an affordable price – like previous governments. A strong “buy-to-let” (BTL) market and the benefit to house-builders to maintain tight supply, among other reasons, has kept demand stronger than supply. Increasingly, an aging population could now undermine attempts to allow more people to join the house-owning population.
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