Commodities Analysis & Insight
Insightful, actionable commodity analysis
Seeing the speed with which mankind is drawing on resources, brings to mind questions of sustainability and eventually the thoughts of economist Thomas Malthus. Essentially, will population expand faster than food supply?
Continue reading “Food supply’s race with the great human acceleration”
A presentation given at the inaugural UK Metals Expo on the challenges the UK metals industry is seeing to metals supply, and some thoughts for adapting.
CAI – UK Metals Expo – Sept 2022
Please contact me to discuss any part of this, or how the thinking can be applied in your procurement team.
Two reason are most often given for the reticence to shift to an electric vehicle (EV): Price and “range anxiety”. Prices may be coming down as EV supply develops and EV anxiety is becoming less of an issue, as vehicle ranges extend and charging infrastructure improves.
However, both of these ‘issues’ are more subjective than objective. Buyers’ understanding is the problem, not price nor range.
In recent months, the business cases for prospective graphite mines are becoming increasingly attractive. The changing demand for graphite is seeing this historically run-of-the-mill commodity become ‘hot”.
Continue reading “Critical graphite’s time to shine”A short piece written for Achilles at the commencement of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Continue reading “Energy transition commodities: Tight supply and concentrated”
The present government is wrestling with the unrealised desires of house-buyers to secure a home at an affordable price – like previous governments. A strong “buy-to-let” (BTL) market and the benefit to house-builders to maintain tight supply, among other reasons, has kept demand stronger than supply. Increasingly, an aging population could now undermine attempts to allow more people to join the house-owning population.
Continue reading “Shifting demographic forecasts will undermine housing plans”
Capital expenditure of the 10 largest mining companies faded 69.7% between 2013 and 2017, whereas revenue only fell 37.7% at its lowest, and was down just 20.7% in 2017.
Continue reading “Will short-term mining profitability bring long-term demand contraction?”
This is a graph of the milestones in the imposition of the Section 232* tariffs, and the corresponding change in steel prices.
Today, there is little advantage between buying domestically or importing steel, even with the 25% tariff.
*Section 232 of the Trade Expansion act of 1962
With agricultural products, the obvious take-away is the clear lack of changes to prices across the year. Prices might be expected to change across the year, as output has a strong annual production cycle. However, price changes between months is subdued and often absent.
Continue reading “Seasonality: Agriculture – Volatile production, flat pricing”